On Friday, the 2012 Olympia will be exactly seven weeks away, and time is running out on all of the hopefuls looking to qualify through the inaugural Olympia Qualification Series. With two of the major contests coming up over the next two weekends – the Tampa Pro Bodybuilding Weekly Championships and the Europa Super Show – here’s a look at how things could shake out by the time the qualifying season wraps up on September 15.
But first, a few disclaimers:
– Tie breakers will be awarded to the competitor(s) with the highest placings. For example, a competitor who places 2nd and earns four points will qualify ahead of a competitor who earns 4 points by placing 3rd and 5th.
– If two competitors finish tied in the final points standings with the same level of placing, both will earn qualifications – for example, if competitors with 4 points from 2nd place finishes end up in the top five, all will qualify.
(Related: About the Olympia Qualification Series)
MEN’S BODYBUILDING
Contests Remaining 3
When Pro Bodybuilding Weekly Championships, August 10-11; Europa Super Show, August 17-18; Nordic Pro Championships, September 8;
The Leaders
(points in parenthesis)
1 – Ben Pakulski (10)
2 – Jon Delarosa, Fred Smalls (6)
4 – Balto Abbaspour, Grigori Atoyan (5)
6 – Toney Freeman, Sergey Shelestov, Mohammad Bannout (4)
(Related: 2012 Mr. Olympia Qualified Competitors)
Outlook With 10 points, Pakulski isn’t just a virtual lock to qualify – he’ll most likely finish the season as the points leader. After that, things aren’t so easy.
Jon Delarosa and Fred Smalls sit in a tie for second with six, but Delarosa has no plans to compete again this year. Smalls, on the other hand, will compete at the Europa and with a top-five finish there, he could solidify his spot. That will be easier said than done as both the Tampa and Europa shows will be loaded. Freeman will likely do both if he must to keep accumulating points, while Shawn Rhoden (2 points) could very well win one of the next two. Both Roelly Winklaar and Hidetada Yamagishi will compete for the first time this weekend.
The big question – who will enter the Nordic Pro? It’s the last stop for a lot of the hopefuls, so don’t be surprised to see a few competitors making the overseas trip in a last-ditch effort to qualify – along with some of the points leaders from Europe and Asia like Mo Bannout and Balto Abbaspour.
212 SHOWDOWN
Contests Remaining 3
When Europa Super Show, August 17-18; Muscle Heat August 25, Valenti Cup, September 8
The Leaders
(points in parenthesis)
1 – Marco Rivera (11)
2 – Shaun Joseph Tavernier (7)
3 – Sami Al Haddad (5)
4 – Mark Dugdale, Muhammad Masoom Butt, Guy Cisternino, Derek Farnsworth (4)
(Related: 212 Showdown Qualified Competitors)
Outlook Rivera and Tavernier are locks – but Tavernier won’t be competing at the Olympia due to a torn abductor he suffered while squatting. Haddad has no plans to compete again before Vegas, but with 5 points he should be fine. Cisternino will compete at the Valenti Cup, and likely only has to place in the top five in order to solidify his qualifying spot.
That’s four of the five spots already accounted for – provided Cisternino doesn’t win the Valenti Cup. We haven’t seen the Europa 212 lineup yet, but we do know this – David Henry will compete in Dallas, while Seth Feroce and Eduardo Correa won’t. Those two will wait for the Valenti Cup for their 2012 212 debuts, which means both will have to place in the top 2 in order to qualify. We know Dugdale won’t compete again this year, but Massom Butt could be the spoiler if he shows up at the Europa or the Valenti Cup.
Derek Farnsworth sits in a good position – provided Butt doesn’t compete in Dallas or at the Valenti Cup – with 4 points and a second-place finish. Regardless, we could see as many as 7 competitors qualifying in the division.
FIGURE
Contests Remaining 5
When PBW Championships, August 10-11; Europa Show of Champions August 17-18; Tournament of Champions September 8; Valenti Cup September 8; Nordic Pro September 8
The Leaders
(points in parenthesis)
1 – Allison Frahn (8)
2 – Natalie Waples, Alea Suarez (7)
4 – Cheryl Brown (5)
5 – Tamara Montoya, Aleisha Hart, Kimberly Sheppard (4)
8 – Larissa Reis (3); Andrea Cantone (3)
(Related: Figure Olympia Qualified Competitors)
Outlook With five contests remaining – including three on the final weekend of the qualifying season, it’s anybody’s guess how things will shake out. Most of the points leaders – aside from Tamara Montoya, who will no longer be competing – plan on competing at least one more time down the stretch. Depending on who automatically qualifies with a win, how things look at the top could change drastically or stay relatively the same. That said, it looks like 10 points could be the magic number for solidifying a spot in the top 5.
Here’s what we know as far as competiton plans:
Frahn – Tournament of Champions
Suarez – Europa Super Show
Brown – undecided, but will compete
Hart – PBW Championships
Sheppard – Tournament of Champions
Reis – Europa Super Show
Cantone – PBW Championships, Valenti Cup
BIKINI
Contests Remaining 4
When PBW Championships, August 10-11; Pacific USA, August 17-18; Valenti Cup, September 8; St. Louis Pro, August 15
The Leaders
(points in parenthesis)
1– Jennifer Chapman, Narmin Assria (13)
2 – Yeshaira Robles (10)
4 – Justine Munro (8)
5 – Dayna Melton (6)
6 – Taylor Matheny (4)
(Related: Bikini Olympia Qualified Competitors)
Outlook See Figure. At the top of the order, only Chapman has said she won’t compete again … unless she has to. Assria, Munro, and Matheny all will compete at least one more time, while Robles and Melton both plan on competing twice. Look for at least two this group to automatically qualify.
Here’s what we know as far as competition plans:
Assria – Pacific USA
Robles – PBW Championships, Valenti Cup
Munro – St. Louis
Melton – PBW Championships, Valenti Cup
Matheny – Pacific USA
FITNESS
Contests Remaining 1
When Valenti Cup September 8
The Leaders
(points in parenthesis)
1 – Danielle Ruban (7)
2 – Fiona Harris (6)
3 – Kizzy Vaines, Vanda Hadarean (4)
5 – Allison Ethier (3)
(Related: Fitness Olympia Qualified Competitors)
Outlook With only 1 contest left, there won’t be much movement at the top of the order. Even if they don’t compete again, Ruban and Harris are locks while Vaines and Hadarean are in good position to finish the qualifying season in the top five.
WOMEN’S BODYBUILDING
Contests Remaining 1
When PBW Championships August 10-11
The Leaders
(points in parenthesis)
1 – Kim Buck (9)
2 – Michelle Cummings (7)
3 – Cathy LeFrancois (6)
4 – Helle Nielsen (4)
4 – Tazzie Columb (4)
6 – Wendy McCready (3)
7 – Gillian Kovack (2)
(Related: Ms. Olympia Qualified Competitors)
Outlook With only one contest left, we’ll know who’s in and who’s out on Saturday night. The top three is already set. With a second-place finish, Helle Nielsen holds a tie-breaker over Tazzie Columb, who could be bumped out of the top five if she fails to earn any points in Tampa this weekend.
